Forecast summary: Be ready to pack an overnight bag and the wax box if you want to ski this weekend, what with light snow today and chilly weather coming Friday. Another wave of cold air Monday will probably result in some snow Tuesday, brightening prospects further for those who are going north during the school break, lucky retirees, and freelancers with checks in the mail.

Will Mother Nature roll a hard six for the mid-Hudson valley and make us lucky? Check out what SNSA said today (see below).

Based on the weather since the beginning of the year, and my musings in ‘Are the canaries OK?’, I wouldn’t blame a cross-country skier living in the NYC metro area for holding some disappointment in Mother Nature.

This weekend’s forecast looks like it’s falling in well with NWS models, and they’re calling for some light snow today, mainly north of Albany and the MA-VT/NH border (I’m getting pretty tired of repeating that one).

Friday will be downright chilly in the far north and mountain regions, with daytime temps in the single digits to low teens. Here in the downstate we’ll be in the low- to mid- 30s.

Saturday will be warmer but still below freezing pretty much any place that skiers want to be. Sunday the warming trend continues, as even northern New England and higher elevations may pop above freezing, while the NYC area will get to the upper 40s.

By Monday a cold front will start coming in from the west, dropping temperatures in the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, and parts of Vermont back below freezing during the day. But the cold air will be blocked by warmer moist air in the south, so we won’t see as much change in the NYC metro area. However, the cold air is expected to cause snowfall across northern NY and New England on Tuesday. Exactly how much is TBD.

Tuesday will feature yet another frontal boundary along with
another area of low pressure tracking west of the area. Look for another round of wet weather on Tuesday before the frontal boundary gets east of the area by mid week.
Other than the cold start to the period, temperatures will
recover and overall average above normal for Sunday through
Tuesday.

NWS forecast discussion for Friday 2/14 thru Tuesday 2/18, vicinity of Fahnestock State Park

Our 2019-2020 season is following a pattern, and even NWS calls it out in forecast discussion. We’ve seen pretty regular small-moderate weather systems bringing snow to the northeast, but almost always out of easy day trip distance from downstate. But if you want take the glass-half-full scenario, there’s been just enough snow to keep Canterbury Farm as an early-start day trip option most weeks, as well as Notchview and the ever-ready-with-a-new-snowcannon Prospect Mountain.

If you really want to take the high road, feel glad that at least the mountains still have snow- the Adirondacks and White Mountains look to be having a terrific snow year.

Hoping for a hard six

FWIW, a post by a member of SNSA on the MHVXCS Google group states that the higher elevations at Minnewaska got 1.5″ of wet snow and sleet overnight. On top of the remaining base it’s skiable if you squint your eyes, use rock skis, and plug your ears against the occasional sound of polyethylene on gravel. IF by chance the mid-Hudson should get super-lucky, there might be some ‘marginally skiable’ conditions on Friday.

Hey, just breathing the fumes of optimism here.