Feb. 17 ski conditions and forecast for the week

Summary

The last week was pretty good (at least where there were skiable conditions), and the next couple of days should be even better, with some light snow showers forecast. The weekend will be rainless, but daytime temperatures will rise to well above freezing in many parts of the northeast.

Minnewaska could get a couple of inches of snow Tuesday morning before precipitation changes to rain, but it’ll take some great timing to get out on rock skis, assuming there’s even enough to ski on.

Hit the link or nav menu item ‘State of the touring centers‘ or find it in the nav menu.

Forecast

A weak cold front Tuesday will collide with a low front, dropping varying amounts of snow accumulation across central NY, the Adirondacks, and northern New England. From the southern Adirondacks southward, precipitation is likely to shift to rain or freezing rain. Gusty winds will accompany the interaction of the two systems until the low departs on Wednesday.

Daytime temperatures will range from freezing to the upper 40s through the northeast on Tuesday, and trend downward until Thursday, when daytime temps will range from the single digits to teens the far northern areas and mountains, teens to 20s in the flatlands from Albany and the MA-VT/MA border northward. Some lingering lake effect snow may fall in central NY, the Catskills, and Tug Hill areas.

After that, the clouds will move out and warmer and drier weather will move in, bringing in gradually rising temperatures for the weekend- by Sunday, high temps in the 20s to mid-30s can be expected in the north and mountain areas, and up to 50 in the NYC metro area.

Feb. 14 ski conditions

This post contains sections and links to Summary, and Forecast

Summary

Viking Nordic trails, morning of Feb. 14 (via Viking Nordic ski center)

If you go just a wee bit further than standard daytrip distance, you can find some pretty nice skiing, including Pineridge. FYI, rooms available at Canterbury Lodge and Stump Sprouts.

Much of the region just north of Albany and the MA-VT/NH border, including southern Adirondacks and Green Mountains, received substantial amounts of snow during the past week. About 1-1/2′ of new snow fell in the last seven days, making for excellent conditions at Lapland Lake, Garnet Hill, Grafton trails, and Wild Wings.

Backcountry is a bit dicier. BETA report from Thursday: “Thanks to last Friday’s 12-18″ of snow, we definitely have good cover everywhere.  Unfortunately, three days of above freezing temperatures have put a crust on the unbroken areas, and a glaze on those sections that have been broken out.”

Hit the link or nav menu item ‘State of the touring centers‘ or find it in the nav menu. Today I’m switching up the snow depth views to feature the daytrip distance and what I call the ‘500-mile’ view. First the daytrip distance:

Snow depth and ski areas within daytrip or early start daytrip distance, Feb. 14
Snow depth and ski areas within daytrip or early start daytrip distance, Feb. 14

It looks like Minnewaska, Mohonk, and Winding Trails could be skiable, but there’s no report yet of anyone actually doing so. Next, the 500-mile view:

500-mile view of northeast US snow depth, Feb. 14
500-mile view of northeast US snow depth, Feb. 14

If you were in the mood for a road trip during the school break, looks like the Laurentians and Gatineau park in Canada would be really nice too.

Forecast

Warmer days (mid-20s to upper 30s in the north; upper 30s to upper 40s in the south ) will alternate with colder ones (single-digits to teens in the north and mountain regions; 20s to 30s in the tristate and southern New England area) from Sunday thru Thursday .

From Monday late night till end of Wednesday, the northeast will have some light to moderate rain in the southern half, and alternating snow-rain-snow in the northern half. Some lucky ducks of the north will get a slight refresh of snow cover while others get a glaze.

Thanks for reading.

President's Day weekend forecast

Forecast summary: Be ready to pack an overnight bag and the wax box if you want to ski this weekend, what with light snow today and chilly weather coming Friday. Another wave of cold air Monday will probably result in some snow Tuesday, brightening prospects further for those who are going north during the school break, lucky retirees, and freelancers with checks in the mail.

Will Mother Nature roll a hard six for the mid-Hudson valley and make us lucky? Check out what SNSA said today (see below).

Based on the weather since the beginning of the year, and my musings in ‘Are the canaries OK?’, I wouldn’t blame a cross-country skier living in the NYC metro area for holding some disappointment in Mother Nature.

This weekend’s forecast looks like it’s falling in well with NWS models, and they’re calling for some light snow today, mainly north of Albany and the MA-VT/NH border (I’m getting pretty tired of repeating that one).

Friday will be downright chilly in the far north and mountain regions, with daytime temps in the single digits to low teens. Here in the downstate we’ll be in the low- to mid- 30s.

Saturday will be warmer but still below freezing pretty much any place that skiers want to be. Sunday the warming trend continues, as even northern New England and higher elevations may pop above freezing, while the NYC area will get to the upper 40s.

By Monday a cold front will start coming in from the west, dropping temperatures in the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, and parts of Vermont back below freezing during the day. But the cold air will be blocked by warmer moist air in the south, so we won’t see as much change in the NYC metro area. However, the cold air is expected to cause snowfall across northern NY and New England on Tuesday. Exactly how much is TBD.

Tuesday will feature yet another frontal boundary along with
another area of low pressure tracking west of the area. Look for another round of wet weather on Tuesday before the frontal boundary gets east of the area by mid week.
Other than the cold start to the period, temperatures will
recover and overall average above normal for Sunday through
Tuesday.

NWS forecast discussion for Friday 2/14 thru Tuesday 2/18, vicinity of Fahnestock State Park

Our 2019-2020 season is following a pattern, and even NWS calls it out in forecast discussion. We’ve seen pretty regular small-moderate weather systems bringing snow to the northeast, but almost always out of easy day trip distance from downstate. But if you want take the glass-half-full scenario, there’s been just enough snow to keep Canterbury Farm as an early-start day trip option most weeks, as well as Notchview and the ever-ready-with-a-new-snowcannon Prospect Mountain.

If you really want to take the high road, feel glad that at least the mountains still have snow- the Adirondacks and White Mountains look to be having a terrific snow year.

Hoping for a hard six

FWIW, a post by a member of SNSA on the MHVXCS Google group states that the higher elevations at Minnewaska got 1.5″ of wet snow and sleet overnight. On top of the remaining base it’s skiable if you squint your eyes, use rock skis, and plug your ears against the occasional sound of polyethylene on gravel. IF by chance the mid-Hudson should get super-lucky, there might be some ‘marginally skiable’ conditions on Friday.

Hey, just breathing the fumes of optimism here.