In like a lamb: 3/8 forecast + conditions

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.

Summary

Great skiing today but warmer weather coming, with some chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday. Cooler temps and nice weather for the weekend. How much good the late-week cooling trend does for the remaining snowpack is yet to be determined.

Magic 8-ball says: downstaters keep your fingers crossed for another weekend of skiing.

Olaf the snowman happy and anxious because he's next to a fire.
Keep that happy face, Olaf!

Conditions

Starting in the mornings, conditions are good in the downstate area, and ‘fast and firm’ in the colder northern climes. Trails will soften significantly during the day, creating some suction on ski bases. We’ll see more wetness earlier in the mornings as the temperatures rise through this week.

While the snowpack depth and coverage are still great (see snow depth graphic below), nights that stay above freezing will mean my next check (probably Friday) is likely to show lots of bare sections.

BETA report from 3/6 says ‘wait and see’ for next weekend. Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions.

Snow depth northeast US, Mar. 8 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US, Mar. 8 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked

Forecast

Temperatures throughout the northeastern US will ramp up rapidly to late spring-like weather, reaching highs for the week on Thursday. On that day the NYC metro, the mid-Hudson valley, and eastern Massachusetts could get to the mid-60s. Even northern NY and New England will have highs in the upper-40s to mid-50s, and mid-30s at elevation.

Skies will be clear early in the week. Moderate chance of precipitation late Thursday into Friday, primarily for NY and PA. Precipitation moves out for the weekend, and skies will turn partly cloudy. Winds will generally be light except for the Thursday-Friday period when stronger breezes and some gustiness will come in with the arriving low.

Overnight lows will be above freezing for downstate starting Tuesday, and by Wednesday night even the far northern low-lying areas will have low temps in the 40s. Cooling late in the week will bring lows back down but still above freezing until at least Saturday night.

A cold front from the north and west comes in late Friday. The weekend should start with high temps in the mid-40s to low-50s for downstate NY and southern New England, low-30s to low-40s in the north country with some mountain areas in the 20s or even teens. The cooling trend continues into Sunday with daytime highs about five degrees lower than Saturday.

A low forming to the south of NYC could affect the downstate and Hudson Valley area on Sunday, but forecasts are not yet clear on this. However there is increased chance of precipitation for Monday-Tuesday of next week.

Thanks for reading.

Conditions for 2/27 weekend + forecast

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.

Summary

Today the word from the groomed-trail touring centers up north is ‘tenderizing’, as in breaking up a frozen surface to be more accommodating for skiing. A couple of places have held off updating or have called conditions too sketchy for now. But it’s gratifying to see that Fahnestock, High Point, and Minnewaska are continuing to groom diligently.

Sad to say this weekend doesn’t look like much fun for skiing in the coastal area or downstate NY. We many not get a lot of rain on Saturday, but combined with very warm temps, we’re looking at losing a significant amount of the snowpack. If an area you like avoids getting a lot of rain, early morning will be the best time to get out on the trail.

Midweek next week looks to be better for skiing, with spring-like conditions ranging from frozen crust to loose granular. As to where, it will depend on what happens to the snowpack. Stay tuned.

A pretty good freeze looks to be coming Monday night; decent groomed trail conditions for Tuesday will require trail crews to get up really early for multiple passes with the Ginzu groomer. Ungroomed or backcountry trails are likely to get more crusty by Tuesday morning. Take care in locations that received rain with daytime temps in the 40s prior to Monday night, as it may be icy.

Conditions

Hope you got out to ski midweek, as the weather was awesome! Snow conditions were a bit wet and soft, but if you went out in the earlier part of the day things were decent.

It was definitely a week to have the Maxiglide tm or Swix F4 tm and a scraper with you. A hint about warm and wet days: try not to let your ski bases pick up any water. Skiing through a puddle, going from sunlit snow into shade, or putting warm skis onto the snow can all result in water droplets forming on the ski base (particularly in the section with the grip pattern), which then causes snow to cake up.

I should probably mention that water adheres to dirty surfaces, so it helps to keep waxless ski bases clean and prep waxed. Although there’s plenty of info on waxing performance and race skis, here’s a video solely about waxing waxless recreational skis:

If you want to scope out where to take those freshly-waxed skis, hit ‘State of the touring centers‘ here or in the menu above for reported conditions. The visual state of our current snowpack is below:

Snow depth northeast US,Feb. 26 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US,Feb. 26 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked

Forecast

A long band of precipitation currently stretches across the country to our southwest. A series of fronts will form starting later today (Friday) and go on through the weekend. Most of the northeast US will see some rain on Saturday, and possible rain showers are forecast for Sunday. Coastal areas up through the mid-Hudson valley will receive the greatest amount of liquid precipitation. Low-lying areas in the far north will also get rain or wintry mix.

The Tug Hill plateau and Adirondacks have the best chance of avoiding rain/wintry mix. The higher elevations of the northern Green and White Mountains might also get lucky.

Either way, Saturday and even Sunday look to be warm and wet across the northeast. Even higher elevations of the far north will rise to the upper-30s to low-40s during the daytimes, while downstate will be in the 40s and NYC will hit fifty degrees.

Colder air moves in slowly from the north starting Monday. Increased winds can be expected across the northeast US, with strongest winds and gusts in the north country and mountain areas. Northern areas will see daytime temps drop a few degrees, but the thermometer won’t change as much south of the Albany and MA-VT/NH border. Some snow showers are possible on Monday across the northern mountain regions. Nighttime temps will be much colder, dropping to single digits in the north country and mid-20s downstate.

Tuesday will be clear and winter-like temperatures return for the day. North country will be in the 20s, downstate and coastal areas in the mid- to upper-30s. Some spots could be windy.

Wednesday and Thursday of next week look to hold a chance of rain showers, and warmer daytime temps. Downstate and NYC metro will be in the 40s, mid-Hudson valley and Catskills in the mid-30s to low-40s, and north country in the 30s except for high elevations.

February’s finale week

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.

Summary

Spring’s early, as temperatures are on a warming trend with multiple fronts midweek and during the weekend that will bring rain to the lowlands and southern regions.

Midweek this week and Sunday look like the best days to ski. Start with the places close by to reduce the carbon footprint of travel. Places with a healthy base and good grooming should make it through the weekend, but it’ll be spring skiing for sure at the start of next week.

Conditions

The Tug Hill plateau got about a foot of snow, and some places in the Adirondacks and Vermont got 6″ or more. Spritzes of precipitation every couple of days during the week will help refresh the snowpack up north, but downstate the grooming and trail maintenance will have to deal with some water.

BETA report as of 2/19 reports crust east and south of Saranac Lake. Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions. Snow depth graphic below shows we still have a pretty healthy snowpack; let’s hope we downstaters have enough left for the first week of March.

Snow depth northeast US, Feb. 23 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US, Feb. 23 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked

Forecast

Today (Tuesday): high temps in the upper-30s to low-40s across NY south of Albany and southern New England, 20s to low-30s in the north country and higher elevations. Westerly winds with some gusts in the mountains.

Snow showers in the northern mountain areas of NY, VT, and NH as well as the Tug Hill plateau this afternoon and overnight. Only a few inches at most, but should be a nice refresh up there.

Wednesday gets warmer by about five degrees: upper-30s to upper-40s south of Albany and the MA-VT/NH border, 30s to low-40s up north. Mountain areas will be in the 20s, with some strong gusty winds. Winds primarily from the southwest. Light rain and wintry mix overspreads much of the northeast from Wednesday afternoon, with a couple more inches of snow in the far north.

Remaining precipitation clears out on Thursday, and temps will be slightly cooler: mid-30s to low-40s across low-lying areas of New England and NY State up through the Hudson valley, teens to upper-20s in the far north and mountains. Winds out of the WNW.

Friday will be a couple of degrees cooler than Thursday, and a cyclonic wind pattern builds, centered over Albany. A front forms late Friday, bringing some snow overnight. Unfortunately it looks to change over to rain/wintry mix by Saturday morning except for the High Peaks, Green Mountains, and White Mountains.

Saturday temperatures jump back up, and outside of the far north and mountain areas of NY, VT, and NH, rain is likely. Most of the northeast will be seeing high temps in the upper-30s to mid-40s, with only the mountaintops staying in the 20s. Winds primarily from the south and southwest.

Sunday’s highs will notch up a few degrees warmer than Saturday: NYC and coastal New England will see high temps in the upper-40s, and even Stowe and Plattsburgh could high 40 during the daytime. Another front forms Sunday afternoon. The NYC metro and Hudson valley, plus coastal New England, are likely to see rain or wintry mix through the overnight, while northern areas will get some light snow showers before it changes over to rain during the day on Monday.

March 1 temps will be in the range of Saturday and Sunday.