February’s finale week

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.

Summary

Spring’s early, as temperatures are on a warming trend with multiple fronts midweek and during the weekend that will bring rain to the lowlands and southern regions.

Midweek this week and Sunday look like the best days to ski. Start with the places close by to reduce the carbon footprint of travel. Places with a healthy base and good grooming should make it through the weekend, but it’ll be spring skiing for sure at the start of next week.

Conditions

The Tug Hill plateau got about a foot of snow, and some places in the Adirondacks and Vermont got 6″ or more. Spritzes of precipitation every couple of days during the week will help refresh the snowpack up north, but downstate the grooming and trail maintenance will have to deal with some water.

BETA report as of 2/19 reports crust east and south of Saranac Lake. Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions. Snow depth graphic below shows we still have a pretty healthy snowpack; let’s hope we downstaters have enough left for the first week of March.

Snow depth northeast US, Feb. 23 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US, Feb. 23 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked

Forecast

Today (Tuesday): high temps in the upper-30s to low-40s across NY south of Albany and southern New England, 20s to low-30s in the north country and higher elevations. Westerly winds with some gusts in the mountains.

Snow showers in the northern mountain areas of NY, VT, and NH as well as the Tug Hill plateau this afternoon and overnight. Only a few inches at most, but should be a nice refresh up there.

Wednesday gets warmer by about five degrees: upper-30s to upper-40s south of Albany and the MA-VT/NH border, 30s to low-40s up north. Mountain areas will be in the 20s, with some strong gusty winds. Winds primarily from the southwest. Light rain and wintry mix overspreads much of the northeast from Wednesday afternoon, with a couple more inches of snow in the far north.

Remaining precipitation clears out on Thursday, and temps will be slightly cooler: mid-30s to low-40s across low-lying areas of New England and NY State up through the Hudson valley, teens to upper-20s in the far north and mountains. Winds out of the WNW.

Friday will be a couple of degrees cooler than Thursday, and a cyclonic wind pattern builds, centered over Albany. A front forms late Friday, bringing some snow overnight. Unfortunately it looks to change over to rain/wintry mix by Saturday morning except for the High Peaks, Green Mountains, and White Mountains.

Saturday temperatures jump back up, and outside of the far north and mountain areas of NY, VT, and NH, rain is likely. Most of the northeast will be seeing high temps in the upper-30s to mid-40s, with only the mountaintops staying in the 20s. Winds primarily from the south and southwest.

Sunday’s highs will notch up a few degrees warmer than Saturday: NYC and coastal New England will see high temps in the upper-40s, and even Stowe and Plattsburgh could high 40 during the daytime. Another front forms Sunday afternoon. The NYC metro and Hudson valley, plus coastal New England, are likely to see rain or wintry mix through the overnight, while northern areas will get some light snow showers before it changes over to rain during the day on Monday.

March 1 temps will be in the range of Saturday and Sunday.

2/17 fast and frozen + a forecast for fluffy stuff

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.

Summary

Now it feels like a Northeast US winter. After rain and sleet all across the northeast on Monday, it all refroze on Tuesday. Tracks are fast and loose snow is like sugar.

Just in time for the weekend, a nice refresh is due for us in the downstate region and western MA on Thursday and Friday. Worst day to be on the road: Friday morning, when roads could have a mix of different kinds of precipitation including snow, ice, and rain.

Conditions

As a result of warm temps and the type of precipitation, the snowpack is granular and frozen granular. The storm coming Thursday and Friday should change things for the better, and the higher accumulations will be in the tristate area of downstate NY/northern NJ/northeastern PA, and southern New England.

On Monday the Adirondacks got several inches of sleety snow-like stuff which touring centers have been able to groom easily. BETA report confirms avalanche conditions in the backcountry.

Reporting on conditions in the evening is like serving last week’s fish, but this is mainly for the seasonal dataset. Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions. Snow depth graphic is below, as usual.

Snow depth northeast US, Feb. 17 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US, Feb. 17 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked

Forecast

From Wednesday thru Friday, temperatures will ramp up slightly. Today, high temps in the teens to 20s in the north country, and some single digits in the mountains; upper-20s to mid-30s across the downstate NY and mid-Hudson area, as well as southern New England. By Friday the daytime temps in the north country will be in the upper-teens to upper-20s. Downstate and southern New England will be in the 30s.

A series of small fronts form starting on Thursday as multiple branches of a low system come up along the coast and interact with the cold air inland. While much of the northeast will only see snow, we in downstate NY and coastal New England are likely to see alternating forms of precipitation through Thursday night and Friday. Total snowfall is projected to be a few inches up in the far north, and 4-10″ across central NY, the southern tier, and the Hudson valley.

NY snowfall forecast by 7pm Feb. 19 2021

The better news is that temperatures will cool off for Saturday as the winds shift northwesterly and the precipitation leaves. In the far north and inland areas, high temps in the teens to mid-20s; downstate, valleys, and southern New England states will range from the upper-20s to mid-30s. Sunday temperatures remain similar to Saturday, but wind direction will be more mixed, portending another storm arriving late Sunday.

Next Monday and Tuesday will turn warmer, resulting in some mix of rain, sleet, and some snow across most of the northeast. Temps on Monday will be in the 30s everywhere up north except the mountains, which will be in the mid-20s. South of the Catskills and across coastal New England the high temps will be in the mid-30s to low-40s.

Forecast: Blecchh

In a manner reminiscent of last year, successive precipitation fronts, first on Tuesday and a second starting Thursday afternoon will bring rain or wintry mix to areas south of Albany and southern New England. Fahnestock just announced that trails will be closed Tuesday. I’ll probably do conditions reports on Wednesday and Friday this week.

Tuesday’s snowfall could accumulate to several inches across western NY. the Tug Hill plateau, Adirondacks, and northern Green Mountains. But a sample of tomorrow’s expected weather indicates even the north country won’t be spared some wintry mix. The only areas that will escape are far inland and at high elevation:

Weather forecast for northeast US, as of Feb. 16 1pm
Weather forecast for northeast US, as of Feb. 16 1pm

Groomers will have their work cut out for them during the upcoming week. Weather and temperatures will go back and forth a couple of times through the next seven days. In addition to rain, downstate will flirt with nighttime temperatures above freezing tonight and Thursday night.

Tuesday high temps will be close to freezing even in far northern locations like Burlington VT. The mountains will be in the mid-20s. NYC metro and coastal southern New England through to Cape Cod will be in the upper-40s.

Clearer conditions bring colder temps on Wednesday: teens to low-20s up north and in the mountains, mid-20s to low-30s downstate.

Thursday the temperatures go up a few degrees to the 20s in the north country and 30s in the NYC metro and downstate regions. A storm will overspread the northeast starting in the afternoon. Precipitation will begin in southern and western NY as snow, but will change over to rain and wintry mix as the evening progresses. NY State north of Albany plus VT and NH should get snow from that system, but projections for the storm track are subject to change. Wintry mix and rain are on the menu for downstate NY and southern New England.

Temperatures Friday crest at the mid-20s to 30s up north, and mid-30s to mid-40s from the Catskills on south before heading back down below freezing as the precipitation clears out. Let’s hope there’s a decent snowpack remaining in the downstate by Friday.

For the weekend things get colder and drier. Saturday temps will be in the teens to mid-20s in the north country and mountains, and 30s in the downstate region. Sunday is forecast to be a few degrees warmer than Saturday.