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Feb. 14 ski conditions

This post contains sections and links to Summary, and Forecast

Summary

Viking Nordic trails, morning of Feb. 14 (via Viking Nordic ski center)

If you go just a wee bit further than standard daytrip distance, you can find some pretty nice skiing, including Pineridge. FYI, rooms available at Canterbury Lodge and Stump Sprouts.

Much of the region just north of Albany and the MA-VT/NH border, including southern Adirondacks and Green Mountains, received substantial amounts of snow during the past week. About 1-1/2′ of new snow fell in the last seven days, making for excellent conditions at Lapland Lake, Garnet Hill, Grafton trails, and Wild Wings.

Backcountry is a bit dicier. BETA report from Thursday: “Thanks to last Friday’s 12-18″ of snow, we definitely have good cover everywhere. Unfortunately, three days of above freezing temperatures have put a crust on the unbroken areas, and a glaze on those sections that have been broken out.”

Hit the link or nav menu item ‘State of the touring centers‘ or find it in the nav menu. Today I’m switching up the snow depth views to feature the daytrip distance and what I call the ‘500-mile’ view. First the daytrip distance:

Snow depth and ski areas within daytrip or early start daytrip distance, Feb. 14

It looks like Minnewaska, Mohonk, and Winding Trails could be skiable, but there’s no report yet of anyone actually doing so. Next, the 500-mile view:

500-mile view of northeast US snow depth, Feb. 14

If you were in the mood for a road trip during the school break, looks like the Laurentians and Gatineau park in Canada would be really nice too.

Forecast

Warmer days (mid-20s to upper 30s in the north; upper 30s to upper 40s in the south ) will alternate with colder ones (single-digits to teens in the north and mountain regions; 20s to 30s in the tristate and southern New England area) from Sunday thru Thursday .

From Monday late night till end of Wednesday, the northeast will have some light to moderate rain in the southern half, and alternating snow-rain-snow in the northern half. Some lucky ducks of the north will get a slight refresh of snow cover while others get a glaze.

Thanks for reading.

President's Day weekend forecast

Forecast summary: Be ready to pack an overnight bag and the wax box if you want to ski this weekend, what with light snow today and chilly weather coming Friday. Another wave of cold air Monday will probably result in some snow Tuesday, brightening prospects further for those who are going north during the school break, lucky retirees, and freelancers with checks in the mail.

Will Mother Nature roll a hard six for the mid-Hudson valley and make us lucky? Check out what SNSA said today (see below).

Based on the weather since the beginning of the year, and my musings in ‘Are the canaries OK?’, I wouldn’t blame a cross-country skier living in the NYC metro area for holding some disappointment in Mother Nature.

This weekend’s forecast looks like it’s falling in well with NWS models, and they’re calling for some light snow today, mainly north of Albany and the MA-VT/NH border (I’m getting pretty tired of repeating that one).

Friday will be downright chilly in the far north and mountain regions, with daytime temps in the single digits to low teens. Here in the downstate we’ll be in the low- to mid- 30s.

Saturday will be warmer but still below freezing pretty much any place that skiers want to be. Sunday the warming trend continues, as even northern New England and higher elevations may pop above freezing, while the NYC area will get to the upper 40s.

By Monday a cold front will start coming in from the west, dropping temperatures in the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, and parts of Vermont back below freezing during the day. But the cold air will be blocked by warmer moist air in the south, so we won’t see as much change in the NYC metro area. However, the cold air is expected to cause snowfall across northern NY and New England on Tuesday. Exactly how much is TBD.

Tuesday will feature yet another frontal boundary along with
another area of low pressure tracking west of the area. Look for another round of wet weather on Tuesday before the frontal boundary gets east of the area by mid week.
Other than the cold start to the period, temperatures will
recover and overall average above normal for Sunday through
Tuesday.
NWS forecast discussion for Friday 2/14 thru Tuesday 2/18, vicinity of Fahnestock State Park

Our 2019-2020 season is following a pattern, and even NWS calls it out in forecast discussion. We’ve seen pretty regular small-moderate weather systems bringing snow to the northeast, but almost always out of easy day trip distance from downstate. But if you want take the glass-half-full scenario, there’s been just enough snow to keep Canterbury Farm as an early-start day trip option most weeks, as well as Notchview and the ever-ready-with-a-new-snowcannon Prospect Mountain.

If you really want to take the high road, feel glad that at least the mountains still have snow- the Adirondacks and White Mountains look to be having a terrific snow year.

Hoping for a hard six

FWIW, a post by a member of SNSA on the MHVXCS Google group states that the higher elevations at Minnewaska got 1.5″ of wet snow and sleet overnight. On top of the remaining base it’s skiable if you squint your eyes, use rock skis, and plug your ears against the occasional sound of polyethylene on gravel. IF by chance the mid-Hudson should get super-lucky, there might be some ‘marginally skiable’ conditions on Friday.

Hey, just breathing the fumes of optimism here.

Feb. 10 conditions + forecast

Section links to Summary and Forecast

Mohonk trails are open for skiing, with 4″ of wet snow; no grooming. Someone took a short ski at Minnewaska and reported in the MHVXCS group: “About 4 inches of wet snow and 37 degrees. The old fish scale skis were still gliding ok with the the liquid glide wax I put on. A few lumps here and there and a few scrapings to the gravel.”

Red can wax for folks in the north, and rock skis for the downstaters.

Summary

Good to very good skiing conditions almost anywhere north of Albany and the MA-VT/NH border. Far northern mountain regions are getting snow today. Variously mixed precipitation during the week including snow showers. Daytime temps in the north will flirt above and below freezing depending on locale, making waxing problematic but skating should be pretty good by midweek.

It’s turning into a pretty good season for anyone living north of a line extending from Albany NY to Lake Winnipesaukee NH. Hit the link or nav menu item ‘State of the touring centers‘ or find it in the nav menu.

It’s hard to resist crying all over the wax box when you read things like: ‘skiers need to expect snow in the tracks’.

The snow keeps coming. Accumulations in the 6+” range are making it not suitable for skate skiing beyond the Wentworth Resort Loop; and classic skiers need to expect snow in the tracks
Jackson Ski Touring Foundation conditions Feb. 10

And then there’s this BETA report from 2/10:

Monday through Thursday will see high temperatures above freezing with some light precipitation of various kinds. No significant accumulation or melting expected. Friday will be very cold with highs only in the low single digits, but Saturday warms to near 20 and then again above freezing on Sunday. So the upcoming weekend and the beginning of President’s week will see by far the best skiing of the season.
BETA trails report Feb. 10

Forecast

Moderate and warmish daytime temps throughout the workweek, with even the far north and mountain areas close to or above freezing. Downstate and mid-Hudson will see highs from 40 to the low 50s. Nighttime temps below freezing from the Catskills north.

Clouds and light precipitation will stay as long as the warm temperatures do, dropping some snow, but mostly rain until Thursday when a cold front briefly moves in. Exactly how much snow will result from this mixing of warm moist air and a passing stream of cold air is uncertain, but the heaviest accumulation will likely be in northern New England.

The cold on Friday will move us into the freezer as max temps in the north will be below zero F in spots. Downstate will be in the upper 20s. In places where it doesn’t snow, skies will be clear for the day.

On the weekend, clouds and warmer temperatures return. Saturday temps will be much warmer than Friday, in the teens to 20s in the north and mountain areas, and 20s to 30s in downstate NY and southern New England. Sunday will be warmer still, 30-40 in the far north, mid-30s to mid-40s downstate NY, MA and CT. There could be some snow/rain showers.