Conditions for 2/27 weekend + forecast

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.

Summary

Today the word from the groomed-trail touring centers up north is ‘tenderizing’, as in breaking up a frozen surface to be more accommodating for skiing. A couple of places have held off updating or have called conditions too sketchy for now. But it’s gratifying to see that Fahnestock, High Point, and Minnewaska are continuing to groom diligently.

Sad to say this weekend doesn’t look like much fun for skiing in the coastal area or downstate NY. We many not get a lot of rain on Saturday, but combined with very warm temps, we’re looking at losing a significant amount of the snowpack. If an area you like avoids getting a lot of rain, early morning will be the best time to get out on the trail.

Midweek next week looks to be better for skiing, with spring-like conditions ranging from frozen crust to loose granular. As to where, it will depend on what happens to the snowpack. Stay tuned.

A pretty good freeze looks to be coming Monday night; decent groomed trail conditions for Tuesday will require trail crews to get up really early for multiple passes with the Ginzu groomer. Ungroomed or backcountry trails are likely to get more crusty by Tuesday morning. Take care in locations that received rain with daytime temps in the 40s prior to Monday night, as it may be icy.

Conditions

Hope you got out to ski midweek, as the weather was awesome! Snow conditions were a bit wet and soft, but if you went out in the earlier part of the day things were decent.

It was definitely a week to have the Maxiglide tm or Swix F4 tm and a scraper with you. A hint about warm and wet days: try not to let your ski bases pick up any water. Skiing through a puddle, going from sunlit snow into shade, or putting warm skis onto the snow can all result in water droplets forming on the ski base (particularly in the section with the grip pattern), which then causes snow to cake up.

I should probably mention that water adheres to dirty surfaces, so it helps to keep waxless ski bases clean and prep waxed. Although there’s plenty of info on waxing performance and race skis, here’s a video solely about waxing waxless recreational skis:

If you want to scope out where to take those freshly-waxed skis, hit ‘State of the touring centers‘ here or in the menu above for reported conditions. The visual state of our current snowpack is below:

Snow depth northeast US,Feb. 26 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US,Feb. 26 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked

Forecast

A long band of precipitation currently stretches across the country to our southwest. A series of fronts will form starting later today (Friday) and go on through the weekend. Most of the northeast US will see some rain on Saturday, and possible rain showers are forecast for Sunday. Coastal areas up through the mid-Hudson valley will receive the greatest amount of liquid precipitation. Low-lying areas in the far north will also get rain or wintry mix.

The Tug Hill plateau and Adirondacks have the best chance of avoiding rain/wintry mix. The higher elevations of the northern Green and White Mountains might also get lucky.

Either way, Saturday and even Sunday look to be warm and wet across the northeast. Even higher elevations of the far north will rise to the upper-30s to low-40s during the daytimes, while downstate will be in the 40s and NYC will hit fifty degrees.

Colder air moves in slowly from the north starting Monday. Increased winds can be expected across the northeast US, with strongest winds and gusts in the north country and mountain areas. Northern areas will see daytime temps drop a few degrees, but the thermometer won’t change as much south of the Albany and MA-VT/NH border. Some snow showers are possible on Monday across the northern mountain regions. Nighttime temps will be much colder, dropping to single digits in the north country and mid-20s downstate.

Tuesday will be clear and winter-like temperatures return for the day. North country will be in the 20s, downstate and coastal areas in the mid- to upper-30s. Some spots could be windy.

Wednesday and Thursday of next week look to hold a chance of rain showers, and warmer daytime temps. Downstate and NYC metro will be in the 40s, mid-Hudson valley and Catskills in the mid-30s to low-40s, and north country in the 30s except for high elevations.

February’s finale week

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.

Summary

Spring’s early, as temperatures are on a warming trend with multiple fronts midweek and during the weekend that will bring rain to the lowlands and southern regions.

Midweek this week and Sunday look like the best days to ski. Start with the places close by to reduce the carbon footprint of travel. Places with a healthy base and good grooming should make it through the weekend, but it’ll be spring skiing for sure at the start of next week.

Conditions

The Tug Hill plateau got about a foot of snow, and some places in the Adirondacks and Vermont got 6″ or more. Spritzes of precipitation every couple of days during the week will help refresh the snowpack up north, but downstate the grooming and trail maintenance will have to deal with some water.

BETA report as of 2/19 reports crust east and south of Saranac Lake. Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions. Snow depth graphic below shows we still have a pretty healthy snowpack; let’s hope we downstaters have enough left for the first week of March.

Snow depth northeast US, Feb. 23 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US, Feb. 23 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked

Forecast

Today (Tuesday): high temps in the upper-30s to low-40s across NY south of Albany and southern New England, 20s to low-30s in the north country and higher elevations. Westerly winds with some gusts in the mountains.

Snow showers in the northern mountain areas of NY, VT, and NH as well as the Tug Hill plateau this afternoon and overnight. Only a few inches at most, but should be a nice refresh up there.

Wednesday gets warmer by about five degrees: upper-30s to upper-40s south of Albany and the MA-VT/NH border, 30s to low-40s up north. Mountain areas will be in the 20s, with some strong gusty winds. Winds primarily from the southwest. Light rain and wintry mix overspreads much of the northeast from Wednesday afternoon, with a couple more inches of snow in the far north.

Remaining precipitation clears out on Thursday, and temps will be slightly cooler: mid-30s to low-40s across low-lying areas of New England and NY State up through the Hudson valley, teens to upper-20s in the far north and mountains. Winds out of the WNW.

Friday will be a couple of degrees cooler than Thursday, and a cyclonic wind pattern builds, centered over Albany. A front forms late Friday, bringing some snow overnight. Unfortunately it looks to change over to rain/wintry mix by Saturday morning except for the High Peaks, Green Mountains, and White Mountains.

Saturday temperatures jump back up, and outside of the far north and mountain areas of NY, VT, and NH, rain is likely. Most of the northeast will be seeing high temps in the upper-30s to mid-40s, with only the mountaintops staying in the 20s. Winds primarily from the south and southwest.

Sunday’s highs will notch up a few degrees warmer than Saturday: NYC and coastal New England will see high temps in the upper-40s, and even Stowe and Plattsburgh could high 40 during the daytime. Another front forms Sunday afternoon. The NYC metro and Hudson valley, plus coastal New England, are likely to see rain or wintry mix through the overnight, while northern areas will get some light snow showers before it changes over to rain during the day on Monday.

March 1 temps will be in the range of Saturday and Sunday.

Avoid the thaw, ski now

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.

Summary

Enjoy the snow this weekend- a February thaw coming next week for the NYC metro and low-lying areas of the northeast. Retirees and gig workers might find Wednesday a pretty nice spring-skiing day.

Best bets for a day trip: High Point and Fahnestock for this weekend. Minnewaska and Moh0nk will be great too, for a bit more driving. As the week progresses, go north.

Conditions

A good refresh of snow downstate and the low-lying areas of New England has helped slow down the ‘fast and firm’ tracks of a few days ago. Up to a few inches of snow as far north as the Green Mountains and southern Adirondacks has spread the love around nicely.

It all kinds of depends on grooming though. BETA report as of 2/18 advises caution in the backcountry due to breakable crust formed after the storm early this week, and crust immediately off the side of surfaces smoothed out by skiers.

Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions. Snow depth graphic below:

Snow depth northeast US,Feb. 19 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US,Feb. 19 2021 (NWS) , with ski centers marked

Forecast

Gradual warming trend across northeast US through the next seven days, with a low coming Monday that will likely bring rain and wintry mix to downstate NY and lowlands of the north country. Nighttime temps in the downstate region may barely reach freezing by midweek, which doesn’t portend well for any remaining snowpack in the downstate area by the end of the month.

Today (Friday): upper-20s to mid-30s downstate and in the valleys with northerly breezes, teens to mid-20s in the far north and higher elevations. Lingering snow and wintry mix precipitation through tonight.

For the weekend, Saturday temps will be similar to Friday’s, with winds out of the northwest. Some chance of snow showers from the Catskills northward. Skies will be clearing downstate and up the Hudson valley on Saturday, and by Sunday it should be nice and sunny across the entire northeast. Strong winds on the peaks in Adirondacks and White Mountains.

Sunday temps will be similar to Saturday, with wind directions westerly downstate and near the coast, southerly in the north country and western NY state.

Early next week, a front forms overnight from Sunday into Monday. Snow or snow showers possible across much of the northeast in the early morning hours before shifting to rain or wintry mix south of the Albany/MA-VT border. Most of the precipitation will be on Monday.

Daytime temps for the first part of the week will be upper-30s to low-40s for downstate NY and across southern New England. Valley areas of the far north will be in the mid-30s, while higher elevations will see temps in the teens to upper-20s. Winds will shift westerly across the northeast, and some very strong gusts could be experienced in the High Peaks, Greens, and Whites.

By the middle part of next week downstate daytime temps will be in the 40s; the NYC metro will be in the upper-40s. Low-lying areas of the north country will be in the upper-30s, and higher elevations may reach the upper-20s. Periodic light snow possible in the Tug Hill and Adirondack region, and northern VT and NH.

For Thursday some spotty fronts could bring snow the to the far north and a slight possibility of rain to downstate NY.

Long-range forecast indicates the northeast will trend higher than ‘normal’ in temperature and precipitation. Let’s hope it’s not too warm. Thanks for reading.