The new rocket science

…is climatology

Earth’s weather and climate result from recursive and iterative interactions between the elements, energy, and time. Recently, with advances in computer modeling, predictions are much better, and simulations are getting closer to replicating observed evidence.

Not a moment too soon, or not a moment too late?

From the NYTimes:

…and from The Atlantic:

Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

“The weather-research hub of Norman, Oklahoma, is rarely mentioned in the same breath as Palo Alto… But over the past few decades, scientists have gotten significantly—even staggeringly—better at predicting the weather.

“Meteorologists are increasingly uniting weather models and climate models, allowing them to project the general contours of a season as it begins.

“You translate Newtonian physics into a sphere and get Coriolis [force],” [said Richard Alley, a geoscientist at Penn State]. “There’s no line in the code that says, Please make a Gulf Stream. But it is the physics of the Earth, so when you spin it up, the Gulf Stream appears because it has to.”

Canadian Clipper

The arrival of a storm from the West heralds dry, powdery snow. This one will carry some pretty cold temps as well, so any snow is going to stay in good shape through Saturday. Break out those waxable classic skis and tune ’em up.

The centers that have skiable conditions now will only get better with a bit more snow. The question is whether the snow will come sufficiently southward to bring Minnewaska or Mohonk back to skiable condition.

[Update 1/30:
Shawangunks region received as much as 6″+. Contact Park for latest word.
Fahnestock received about 6″, opened for skiing at 12noon on field, lake and campground trails only, with thin cover in spots.]

Hit up the ‘State of the touring centers’ link above for a full report minus updates.

For a taste of what’s to come, here’s some forecast maps:

Total snowfall projected as of January 31
Total snowfall projected as of January 31
Max temp projected for Saturday Feb. 2
Max temp projected for Saturday Feb. 2

Today, Friday and Saturday look to be fine days for skiing. Sunday the snow will soften up as the temps will be above freezing for most of NY and New England.

Here’s a graphic of snow depth as of today:

Snow depth in Northeast US January 29
Snow depth January 29

Finally, the photo of the day comes from Garnet Hill, where training for new trail groomers starts at an early age:

garnet hill trail groomer in training

Great winter just a few hours away

The rain hurt some touring centers, but many recovered by aggressive grooming over the past day or so. Further north, many places actually got a few inches of fresh snow on the trails, and conditions are now excellent.

The photo of the day comes from Grafton Trails and Outdoor Center in Grafton Vermont:

Grafton Trails outdoor event
A beautiful winter day to host the annual BCBS Snow Days event!

A ‘clipper’ is bringing some snow to the northern tier and northern New England mid-week. It’s doubtful that we’ll see much down here in the NYC area.

The forecast is for daytime temperatures for the downstate region to seesaw till Thursday, when we drop to the 20s for a few days.

Snow depth in northeast US, January 26
Snow depth January 26 2019

As usual, Prospect Mountain is a safe bet, and Notchview managed to save some trails to keep skiing alive in Massachusetts. Hit up the ‘State of the touring centers’ link above for a zoomable map with clickable icons.