We have a Sunday that feels wintry, with milder temperatures and some rain for the upcoming week. Grooming is becoming sporadic. There’s a sense that the fat guy is waiting in the wings, getting ready to sing the last aria.

This post is about conditions for Mar. 19, 2023, and forecast for the next few days. See jump links to Conditions and Forecast.

Conditions

‘Firm and fast’ conditions in areas up north, with a warm sunny Saturday followed by a cold overnight that put a good hard freeze on the trails. Some areas are holding off on grooming till things get a bit softened during the day.

In the north country, lake effect brought anywhere from a dusting to a few inches of fresh snow. In the downstate and NYC metro region, Fahnestock’s last day is today, and Minnewaska is hanging in for another day or so. Given the weather forecast, downstate may be done for the season.

Where it’s still available, today will be a fast day for skating, and tough day for kids waxing.

BETA report of 3/18 says rain on Friday created crusty surface for backcountry.

Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions as of today. Snow depth graphic below:

Forecast

Lake effect snow will add some accumulation across parts of the northeast as far as Vermont, for today and tomorrow, with the heaviest snow just downwind of the Great Lakes, but also sporadic heavier snow showers elsewhere. Blustery winds will make things it feel all the more wintry

Enjoy it, because we’re about to enter a very mild spell, with temperatures rising through the week, and by Thursday even the north county will see daytime temps in the 50s.

Rain begins across the northeast on Wednesday, starting with some light showers. These could become heavier showers on Thursday, which will continue into Friday. A slight cooling trend appears to be starting for next weekend, and remaining precipitation in the far north could change over to snow for a bit, but it’s not likely to do much for the snowpack.. An extended period of precipitation could generate some flooding.

Nighttime temps will be above freezing by Wednesday early morning in the downstate region; by Thursday for the northern areas.

Daytime temps	Monday 3/20	Tuesday 3/21	Wednesday 3/22	Thursday 3/23	Friday 3/24	Saturday 3/25
Northern NY, VT, NH	Mid-30s to low-40s	Mid-30s to mid-40s	Upper-30s to upper-40s	Upper-30s to low-50s	Mid-30s to low-50s	Upper-30s to low-40s
NYC metro and coastal New England	Mid-40s to mid-50s	50s	50s	Upper-50s to low-60s	Upper-50s to mid-60s	50s