MLK weekend forecast

The freezing rain hasn’t affected the trails too much at all! The track set on these trails is variable in depth. Hillier terrain remains expert only!

(Mt van Hoevenberg trail report, Jan. 13)

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.


Authentically cold temps forecast for Saturday will force some touring centers to close or post advisories warning intrepid skiers and outdoor venturers. In the north country it will be cold enough that you’ll be lucky if skis get any glide at all. No snow expected till Sunday night and all day Monday, so watch weather forecasts to prepare for drive time.

Prospect Mountain and Pineridge are open today, but check again before heading up on the weekend. Better skiing to be had in the White Mountains and High Peaks of the Adirondacks.


Winter is being kind of stingy with the snow so far, and doing a real act on us with temperature swings high and low. There’s skiing out there, but a number of touring centers are still cautioning that skiers should have some pretty good skills and be using their ‘rock skis’. Craftsbury reports good conditions on a substantial amount of their trails, and I suspect it’s just better grooming + some snow farming.

The quick warm spell yesterday changed snowfall in the Tug Hill area into freezing drizzle/rain overnight. At the two Osceola touring centers this resulted in an icy crust overnight. They are grooming carefully with the temps just above freezing, hoping not to pack the ice and snow too much, lest it freeze into something too solidly icy in the upcoming cold spell.

BETA report as of 1/10 says: ‘hit the touring centers’. Mt. van Hoevenberg used up their exclamation point quota for the day today. Heroic trail grooming award goes to Pineridge, which is open and groomed on a 1-2″ base. Notchview is open with 5k and an ‘advanced skiers with rock skis’ advisory. Grading conditions reporting took some interpretation today.

Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions as of today. Snow depth graphic below:

Snow depth northeast US, Jan. 13 2022 (NWS) , with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US, Jan. 13 2022 (NWS) , with ski centers marked


Winds will be shifting from westerly to northerly by Friday night. With that turn in wind direction, temperatures will plummet going into Saturday. By ‘plummet’, I mean a difference of 25˚F or more between Friday’s high temp and Saturday. Breezes might not be strong, but at below-zero temps, almost any wind will feel like it’s tearing off any exposed skin.

On Saturday the NYC metro area will get to about 20˚F, while just up the Hudson valley temps will be in the teens. Further inland and out of the river valleys, temps will be in the single digits. In the far north they’ll be lucky to get above zero degrees Fahrenheit, and at elevation- fuhgeddaboudit. Might not be as cold as that time in Lake Placid in 2015 when it was -9˚F, but it’ll be close.

Sunday will warm up as southerly winds start pushing away the cold air. Downstate will get to the 30s and even 40s, while up north it will feel like a normal midwinter day in the teens and 20s. The warm winds bring moisture from the south for Sunday evening, which will mean rain/wintry mix downstate and snow up north.

Precipitation is likely across the northeast US on Monday; the type will depend on time of day, elevation, and latitude. The snowfall amount is not projected, but there could be significant accumulation for the right places. Best chances for it to remain all snow are in the far north, as Monday’s high temps will continue to rise, getting to the mid-40s downstate, and 20s to low 30s up north.

Following the long weekend temps will stabilize for a day or two, and weather will be clear except for some lake effect snow showers in central NY and the Tug Hill.

Thanks for reading.