Flirting with winter

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.

Summary

If you’re near a convenient golf course, you might get a little bit of skiing in. Otherwise you’d have a pretty good trip to get to skiable terrain, and even then it’ll be a bit thin.

missed it by that much-giphy
(Those under 55 might also have missed this TV show)

Although it was never really predicted that the downstate area would get much more than 4″, had the forecasters been wrong and we’d gotten double the amounts, we’d have been in the jackpot for some nice local skiing.

Conditions

We got the predicted 4-6″ in the NYC area, but above-freezing temps has melted some of that already. Lack of preexisting base means the best skiable terrain is a golf course; anything else and your skis will be scraping dirt or worse. But at least it’s nice to look at.

Accumulations were heavier to the east. Winding Trails in Connecticut opened today. In the Boston ‘burbs, Great Brook has opened and Weston (Leo J. Martin ski track) has some terrain on the golf course that’s skiable.

Up north, only lake effect snow made a difference, so the Osceola touring centers are opening, albeit with a thin base, and Mt. van Hoevenberg got 3″ of nice powder but it’s a hard base underneath. Paul Smith’s VIC reports an 8″ base and new snow of 1″.

Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions as of today. Snow depth graphic below:

Snow depth northeast US, Jan. 7 2022 (NWS) , with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US, Jan. 7 2022 (NWS) , with ski centers marked

The picture above does not accurately reflect recent snowfall, so below is a pic with the amount of snow that fell in the last 24 hours. The corridor from Bridgeport to Boston was the bullseye, with 8-12″ of snow, while NYC got 6-8″, and the north and west suburbs saw about 4″.

Forecast

Winds from the WNW for Saturday morning, and cool temps for the day: single digits to teens up north, and low 30s in the NY metro area. Some continued lake effect snow in the Finger Lakes region. Winds begin shifting to southerly in the afternoon.

Southerly winds will bring moisture across the region for Sunday. This will likely start as ice and wintry mix in the early morning hours, shifting toward rain during the daytime. The type of precipitation at any given time will depend on elevation, latitude, and the vagaries of wind/weather. Daytime will be much warmer, with high temps well above freezing across the northeast, except for the mountains. Sunday afternoon, winds will shift southwesterly, and with falling temps the precipitation will shift back toward snow for northern New York and New England.

Monday, westerly winds will bring lake effect snow across New York State, with snow showers touching the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. High temps will be in the teens and 20s up north, 20s and 30s downstate.

Tuesday will be a real midwinter day: northwest winds will bring cold air down across the entire northeast US, resulting in daytime temperatures hovering around zero degrees Fahrenheit up north, and struggling to get above 20 degrees in the Tristate area.

Overnight into Wednesday, winds will shift back to the south, bringing daytime temps similar to Monday’s highs. By late Wednesday we could see snow showers, which could continue into Thursday for upstate NY and NE, as temps continue to rise several degrees.