You know the first part of the story already: snow arriving Tuesday! Yay! Parts of the North Country could see up to 13″ by the end of Wednesday. The downstate region could receive 5″ of new snow. Shawangunks might get 7″.

But (and you probably know there was a ‘but’ coming)- daytime temps will go into the upper 40s through most of the Northeast US from Wednesday on. Much of the snow will likely turn into sleet and freezing rain in spots below Albany overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning:

Even if we get lucky and cooler air pushes the snow line southward, there’s another storm that will probably mean rain on Friday into Saturday, all the way up past North River (Garnet Hill). Prospect Mountain might also get some rain or freezing rain.

Which makes the early week prospects for the weekend droop like Eeyore’s ears:

To accentuate the positive (and show what can be done with what snow you get), check out this short video from Shawangunk Nordic Ski Association on Feb. 8 (Facebook public post). Nice work by Minnewaska, grooming the trail on Saturday.

And a screengrab from the Prospect Mountain live webcam as of today sure looks nice:

Finally, reviewing the snow depth map and ski area conditions indicates the grooming crew at many areas have been busy with tillers and other equipment to break up the ice into a granular surface. Several northern ski areas report conditions are ‘fast and firm’. Everyone will feel better with some freshening of the base.

If you’d rather make your own trails, it sounds like conditions in woods and backcountry will be distant and the skiing dubious- until Wednesday, when there could be a significant layer of snow on top. Lucky folks who can take off today or tomorrow might head to Prospect Mountain or Lapland Lake. Off-piste skiers might like Thursday best.

As usual, hit the link ‘State of the touring centers’ up top to get the conditions as of Monday Feb. 11.