Getting ready for the last aria

This post contains section links to More info and Forecast.

Summary

Opera finale

End of the season is looming. Warm temps and rain across much of the northeast. Cooler weather for the weekend, but not much chance of any snow. Prospect Mountain is still skiable, and Notchview may or may not make it through the week.

Meantime, north of Albany, there’s still very good conditions at touring centers and in the woods. Lots of end-of-season events this weekend, including the Lake Placid Loppet at Mt van Hoevenberg, NENSA High School championships at Gore Mtn, and the Mt Washington Backcountry Ski Festival.

For details on skiabiity conditions, hit up the link or nav menu item ‘State of the touring centers‘.

More info

I think Mohonk called their ski season March 3 when they opened their trails for hiking. Northfield called it on March 6. Based on the lack of updates in the past week (or longer), I’m retroactively marking 3/3 as the end of hope for Fahnestock, High Point, Minnewaska, Canterbury, Maple Farm, and Mountain Trails. We’re closing a bummer of a season for downstate.

BETA report of 3/9 indicates spring skiing during the week, and ‘hard and fast’ conditions in the backcountry on the weekend.

And because we can’t help but stare at the oncoming spring like a deer in the headlights, here’s the snow depth graphic for today:

Snow depth northeast US, 2020-0310
Snow depth northeast US, March 10, with ski touring centers marked

By comparison, the closest match of the 2018-19 season for snow cover and touring center ski conditions took place almost three weeks later:

Snow depth in Northeast US, March 29 2019
Snow depth in Northeast US, March 29 2019

Forecast

See-sawing temperatures through the week, with moderate chances of rain tonight (Tuesday), and rain coming in late Thursday with rain very likely on Friday. Breezy on Friday with some very strong gusts (50+mph) at higher elevations, predominantly from the north.

North of Albany and the MA-VT/NH border: Wednesday daytime temps will range from the upper 20s to upper 40s; Thursday mid 30s to low 50s; Friday upper 30s to upper 50s. Except for overnight Thursday-Friday, low temperatures in the north will be below freezing.

Saturday will be dry, with early-spring season temperatures up north, ranging from mid 20s to low 40s. Winds will shift easterly, with very strong gusts in the early morning hours. Daytime winds 10-15mph, with strong gusts (40+mph) on mountains. Sunday temps will be about the same, with a slight chance of scattered snow and rain showers. Light southerly winds.

Monday will be a few degrees warmer, also with possible scattered snow or rain showers. Light winds from the north.

Mar. 6 ski conditions + weekend outlook

This post contains section links to More info and Forecast.

Summary

I could be wrong, but I don’t think we’re going to get skiable conditions downstate in the remaining few weeks of the season. Stump Sprouts pulled the plug on their ski season on the 4th, and Brattleboro Outing Club on the 5th.

Olaf the snowman is disappointed
You promised we’d go skiing!

But once you make the commitment to go north, who’s keeping it going? I’d say Lapland Lake, Timber Creek, Gore Mountain, and Garnet Hill, for starters. Prospect Mountain, at a lower latitude, was a bit more affected by melt-and-refreeze, so they need to regroom the upper trails to be in shape for the weekend. Notchview is gritting their teeth and hanging on.

More info

Nighttime temperatures will be below freezing for the weekend, so ski centers with decent snow cover should be able to groom something out of it.

Further north, all the popular ski centers in the High Peaks and White Mountains have good cover and trail conditions. Meanwhile up in Ripton Vermont, Rikert got a couple of inches of fresh snow, so they’re skiing in mid-winter conditions.

BETA report updated today (Friday) states: “Looks like a great weekend for skiing.  An inch of new snow Wednesday night on top of a foot or more of solid base means everything is skiable.”

Side note: in Osceola, as part of the impending closure, deposits have been put down on three of nine parcels up for sale.

Hit up the link or nav menu item ‘State of the touring centers‘ for reported conditions.

Today I’ll widen the graphic to show a ‘500-mile’ view, so you can dream about the snowpack in the Laurentians northwest of Montreal and Gatineau park outside Ottawa. Or the deep woods of remote Maine.

Forecast

Today (Friday), light rain downstate, and snow north of the all-too-familiar Albany and MA-VT/NH border. The snow will taper off overnight, lingering into Saturday morning only in central NY. At best, the snow will be a dusting or a touch-up.

Daytime temperatures Saturday- 20s to 30s to the north of Albany, mid 30s to upper 40s on south to the NYC metro. Sunday will be very spring-like, with daytime temps from 40 to 50 in the north and to the upper 50s in the NYC area.

Monday will be the warmest day of the next five to six days: upper 30s to upper 50s in the north and into the upper 60s in NYC. Chance of precipitation for the northeast on Monday, starting in the north, and will last in one form or another through the midweek.

Tuesday, temps will be a degree or two cooler, and rain is very likely. Winds could be intermittently gusty at the higher elevations. Wednesday, areas north of Albany will be in the mid 30s to upper 40s; Thursday, freezing to mid 40s. Likelihood of precipitation will increase for Thursday, and could shift over to snow in the northern areas by sometime Wednesday evening.

March 3 ski conditions + weekend outlook

Is this what skiers do without snow? (Photo by Mark Abramson via NYTimes)

This winter was one of the top 10 warmest for many places across the country, including New York.

New York City Had Among Least Snowy Winters on Record‘, by Anne Barnard

This post contains section links to More info and Forecast.

Summary

The consultant’s magic eight-ball answer on where to ski midweek is: ‘it depends’. Conditions get better the farther north and higher the elevation, but warm temps and chance of rain showers the today won’t improve the snowpack. Cooling temps toward the end of the week will mean some iciness to be groomed out, and may also come with mixed snow/rain showers. When to ski? Roll the dice or ask again later.

More info

Universal klister

Either way, north of the snowline it’s klister time! BETA report of 3/2 states: “weather this week will be less than ideal with temperatures in the 40s”. And the writing’s on the wall if you’re more than an 30 minutes south of the snowline- Mohonk and Northfield Mountain have opened their trails for hiking.

State of the touring centers‘ is updated. Here’s the snow depth map:

Snow depth northeast US 2020-0303 with ski centers marked
Snow depth northeast US, March 3

Forecast

Weekday temperatures will reach a high today (Tuesday) of about 60 in the NYC metro area, and 30s to 40s north of the snowline. Moderate chance of precipitation throughout the northeast, with a higher probability in the north country. This will be rain. Light winds predominantly from the west for the next couple of days, with some extra breeziness on Wednesday.

Starting Wednesday, daytime temps will be on a downward trend. Possible light snow showers in the Tug Hill plateau, High Peaks of the ‘dacks, and higher elevations of far northern New England on Wednesday. However, nighttime temps won’t drop below freezing until overnight Wednesday-Thursday.

Friday expect highs in the 20s to low 40s north of the Albany/MA border latitude, and on Saturday teens to mid 30s. In the downstate and southern New England areas, Friday-Saturday will range from the low 30s to mid 40s.

A front will move in across Pennsylvania on Thursday, bringing some precipitation for the entire region Friday through early Saturday. Unfortunately, it will likely be a mix of snow and rain showers. Winds will shift southerly on Friday, with some strong breezes on Saturday.

Sunday daytime high north of snowline will range from the freezing to the mid 40s, and mid 40s to 50 south of the snowline to the NYC metro area. At least it will be sunny and dry.

Monday daytime temps will be about 7-10˚F warmer than Sunday, with scattered rain and some snow showers.