Put away the umbrellas, get out the snow shovels

This post contains section links to Conditions and Forecast.

Summary

The northeast took a hard hit from rain and warm weather. Better news coming with a significant storm for Thursday evening into Friday morning. Saturday will be the best day to ski, with Sunday a close second (better if you like skiing in a snowfall).

Conditions

Below are NWS graphics for predicted snowfall by Friday in the primary region of interest to NYC skiers:

BETA report as of 2/22 is holding out hope for a decent amount of snow to cover the base, improving the backcountry ski trails.

Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions as of today. The images below compare Monday’s snow with Wednesday:

Forecast

Wednesday: rain fades during the morning, and temperatures peak in the upper-60s in the NYC metro region and southern New England. The farthest reaches of the northeast will see daytime highs from the mid-40s to low-50s. In the afternoon, portions of the northernmost areas could see some snow showers.

Wednesday afternoon cold air moves in from the north, driving temperatures down sharply overnight. Strong winds will accompany the turn in weather.

For Thursday high temps downstate will be in the low- to. mid-30s, and teens to mid-20s up north, with some single digits at higher elevations. From Thursday onward through the early part of next week, nighttime temps will stay below freezing. Snow is forecast starting in the late afternoon Thursday, with some rain or wintry mix in the southernmost areas of the NYC metro. The snow will begin from the south and work its way northward overnight into Friday.

Significant accumulation is projected across the northern Catskills, southern Adirondacks, Massachusetts, Vermont, and New Hampshire. 8-10″ is forecast for areas adjacent to the Mohawk Valley of New York and extending across southern Vermont. 10-12″ could accumulate in New Hampshire east of the Connecticut Valley in the southern half of the state. The Hudson Highlands just north of NYC could get about 4″.

In the NYC metro and Hudson Valley, as well as coastal southern New England, precipitation is likely to change over to rain and wintry mix on Friday as the storm winds down. Precipitation from the Catskills and the CT-MA border northward should remain all snow. Temperatures stay similar to Thursday up north, but the NYC metro will get to the low-40s.

The weekend will be a bit milder and dry for the first half. Saturday will be a couple of degrees warmer overall compared to Friday, and dry except for ongoing lake effect snow showers in northern New York. Sunday, downstate New York will be in the upper-30s to low-40s, while the north country will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Sunday night holds a chance of snow showers for central New York and the NYC metro region, extending into Monday.

Monday next week the temps drop back to the mid-20s to low-30s downstate, and teens to low-20s up north. Tuesday looks to be about five degrees warmer than Monday: upper-20s to mid-30s in the NYC metro, in the twenties up north.