The new rocket science

…is climatology

Earth’s weather and climate result from recursive and iterative interactions between the elements, energy, and time. Recently, with advances in computer modeling, predictions are much better, and simulations are getting closer to replicating observed evidence.

Not a moment too soon, or not a moment too late?

From the NYTimes:

…and from The Atlantic:

Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

“The weather-research hub of Norman, Oklahoma, is rarely mentioned in the same breath as Palo Alto… But over the past few decades, scientists have gotten significantly—even staggeringly—better at predicting the weather.

“Meteorologists are increasingly uniting weather models and climate models, allowing them to project the general contours of a season as it begins.

“You translate Newtonian physics into a sphere and get Coriolis [force],” [said Richard Alley, a geoscientist at Penn State]. “There’s no line in the code that says, Please make a Gulf Stream. But it is the physics of the Earth, so when you spin it up, the Gulf Stream appears because it has to.”

Fickle polar vortex

The weather has turned distinctly for the worse- rain today across the northeast, followed by a return to below-freezing temps in the far inland reaches of upstate NY, VT, northern NH and ME. By the weekend, some lake effect snow might dust the Tug Hill plateau and the western regions of NY.

Which means the remaining snow cover will get a nice, hard icy crust. Groomers will have their work cut out for them at touring centers, and backcountry conditions will be… challenging!

Timing is everything

A major winter storm will come through the Northeast US, potentially dumping serious snow in the Poconos, Catskills, and Berkshires and points northward.

Snowfall forecast for January 20
Snowfall forecast for Sunday night January 20

Daytime temps will stay below freezing till Wednesday, so plenty of places will have snow to open or have super conditions- by Monday afternoon. Envy the retirees.

Note: the ‘State of the touring centers’ won’t be updated till I have some solid data, likely Monday.