Last flings: conditions and forecast for Mar. 16 2026

Looks like the World Cup races in Lake Placid are well-timed as a possible last aria for the 2025-26 XC ski season. Mother Nature might always surprise us, but in terms of touring center operations it may not be worth the trouble, given the work needed for springtime.

Lloyd Bridges in movie 'Airplane!',with cup of coffee and cigarette, in front of photos showing him in exactly the same pose.
Looks like March was the wrong month to start cross-country skiing

There’s just not any great place to ski in the rain, and that’s what most of the Northeast-US is going to get today.

empty shot glass w umbrella
With alcohol please

This post is about conditions for Mar. 16 2026, and forecast for the next few days. See jump links to Conditions and Forecast.

What will the skiing be like?

Conditions recap: soft, slushy, icy spring conditions best enjoyed in the woods rather than open fields. The past weekend was the last run for some places that decided to call it a season, including Bretton Woods.

Things at this late stage in the season are such that the places that have closed trails temporarily are also not sounding optimistic that they’ll get enough new snow to reopen them. Not to mention that the trusty grooming and maintenance crews are not into making a huge effort for the chance of a few more days of skiing pleasure.

You can hear a season’s worth of work in one short but honest post:

I’m not going to grrom today. You can fat bike it as it is, if you like this morning. It may also soften enoungh by mid-day for a back country type ski.

Although there remains 8 – 14″ base pretty consistently on most wooded trails, the occasional washouts would require a fair amount of work to patch up enough to get the groomer through. With rain coming on Monday and a shoulder than needs a rest, I’m going to pass on this one.

Stump Sprouts trail report Sunday 3/15/26

Give it up for the groomers – they make it our fun pastime a lot easier to enjoy.

Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions as of today. Snow depth graphic below:

Snow depth northeast US, Mar. 16, 2026 (NWS)
Snow depth northeast US, Mar. 16, 2026 (NWS)

That’s a pretty thin snowpack alright.

Upcoming weather

Weather recap: warm weather and rain have depleted the snowpack, and the small refershes of snow have been no match so far. But there’s still a bit of life lef tin the comatose ol’ man winter yet. There have ben some gusty winds, particularly in the southern and coastal regions.

Precipitation ends early Tuesday, with some of the last remnants converting to snow showers in the north as colder air arrives from the west and daytime temps drop about twenty degrees compared to Monday. At least a few inches of lake effect snow will fall across the Tug Hill and northern NY state, with some lesser amounts in the Adirondacks. Wind gusts quiet down but still breezy, and gusts will still be up to 30-35mph in the lowlands and 35-40mph at elevation.

Wednesday will be dry and cold, with mild westerly winds and little gustiness. Mostly sunny on this day, possibly the nicest one for the week to be outside.

Thursday will start with some light snow across northerm parts of NY state, Vermont, and New Hampshire, as winds shift southerly bringing moist air in. As the day goes on, rain showers will arrive for the western and southernmost parts of the Northeast-US and the Hudson valley. The rain/wintry mix/snow line with shift back-and-forth throughout the day. Winds will be a bit breezy at times on Thursday and Friday, going up to 20mph in some parts.

The pattern of northern snow showers/southern rain showers will continue into Friday and the weekend, as will periodic shifts in type, as winds start shifitng fro the west and WNW. Given that night time temps north of Albany and the VT-NH/MA border will be below freezing, there’s a reasonable chance to pick up some accumulation in the norther regions of the Northeast-US. Gustss will get a bit stronger over the weekend, rising to 30+mph in isolated areas.

Date / Daytime high tempMountains in northern NY, VT, and NHLowlands from central NY to NH interiorHudson Highlands to NYC metro
Mo 3/16Mid 40s to low 50sUpper 50s to low 60sLow 60s
Tu 3/17Teens to 20Low 20s to low 30sUpper 30s to low 40s
We 3/18TeensMid 20s to mid 30s
Upper 30s to low 40s
Th 3/19Teens to low 30sUpper 30s to low 40s40s
Fr 3/2020sMid 30s to mid 40s50s
Sa 3/2120sMid 30s to mid 40s Low 50s
Su 3/22 20s30s Mid to upper 40s
(temps expressed in ˚F)

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