Forgivable forecasting errors: conditions for the week of Jan. 19 2026

Enough snow has fallen that areas close to NYC have been able to open! The NOAA was wrong about chances for downstate snow, but we prefer errors in the direction of more snow. Here’s what’s available close by:

  • Fahnestock is open Sunday Jan. 18, with thin cover and some baser spots. Expect that open trails will be limited.
  • High Point is open for skiing Sunday Jan. 18.
  • Mohonk Mountain house and Preserve has only the Overcliff trail open for skiing – groomed from the West Trapps lot.
  • Minnewaska State Park trails are not open for skiing – the 5″ of snow they got did not adhere to the ice beneath when packed down. They will reevaluate if they get the currently predicted 3-6″ additional snow today.

Will the above be open Monday? Stay tuned. But for now:

Olaf the snowman from 'Frozen', looking happy and making a snow angel.
Olaf is happy!

This post is about conditions for Jan. 18 2026, and forecast for the next few days. See jump links to Conditions and Forecast.

How’s the skiing in general?

The Tug Hill and Adirondacks are doing reasonably well. Although they didn’t get much snow in the last 24hrs, they didn’t get as much rain as further south. By contrast, in the the mid-Hudson area and Berkshires, the base turned into boilerplate ice, and snow that fell didn’t adhere well. It’s a problem to groom that into skiable trails, and at the moment the risks of skiers scraping surface snow off the ice and sliding or falling present a hidden hazard. For places between those two regions the status is, well, in-between.

More snow, time, and continued grooming can make something of this, but they’ll have to hurry because the temps are going drop significantly by Tuesday.

Hit up ‘State of the touring centers‘ or in the menu above for reported conditions as of today. Snow depth graphic below:

Snow depth northeast US, Jan. 18 2026 (NWS)
Snow depth northeast US, Jan. 18 2026 (NWS)

Forecast

Recap: From Friday evening through this morning, colder air brought in from the northwest by a strong low to our northwest in Canada interacted with a moisture-carrying stream off the coast. What might have fallen as rain in NYC was instead a couple of inches of snow and sleet. Further inland, it was almost all snow. This coastal system is moving northeasterly, and is expected to deliver snow mainly to the interior of Connecticut and Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts.

Snowfall over the last 24 hours (see graphic below) shows 2-4″ of snow across a broad swath of southern New York and New England, and along the coast all the way to Maine. A certain area of the Catskills around Big Indian or Shandakan received 6-8″ of snow.

Snowfall in 24hrs to 0700 Jan. 18 2026 (NWS)
Snowfall in 24hrs to 0700 Jan. 18 2026 (NWS)

By Tuesday a stream of cold air will be drawn into our region by a stable low sitting in Canada, and lake effect snow will create snow showers across central and upstate New York, and northern Vermont. Stronger winds with gusts of 24-30mph will accompany the change in weather, and then abate somewhat for a couple of days.

Grow some fur, ’cause it’s gonna be cold outside.

Slightly warmer temsp midweek will give way to another cold front on Thursday. Of greater interest could be a system that will generate snow showers broadly across the northeast staring late Wednesday and lasting into Thursday just ahead of it. Winds and wind gusts will again pick up during this change, mainly in the mountains.

Even colder temps may be in store for us for next weekend. Another, longer-lasting system may bring snow showers across the northeast as well. Obviously this is far enough out that things can change.

DateNorthern NY VT NH mtnsNorthern lowlandsHudson Highlands to NYC metro
Mo 1/19 (MLK day)Single digits to teensMid to upper 20sLow 30s
Tu 1/20Below zero to single digitsTeensTeens to low 20s
We 1/21Single digits to teensMid 20s Upper 20s to mid 30s
Th 1/22TeensUpper 20s to low 30sMid to upper 30s
Fr 1/23Single digitsTeens to low 20s Upper 20s to low 30s
Sa 1/24Single digitsTeens to mid 20s30s
(temps expressed in ˚F)

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