How’s the skiing?

Nice today except for gusty winds. Saturday starts nice but with cloudy skies, and snow begins in the afternoon, moving SE to NW. Conserve some ski energy for Monday as Sunday likely to be sloppy or a bit of a washout.

Weekend Word

Not a lot of snow expected along the coast for this weekend, perhaps only an inch or two, but could be 2-4″ just a bit north and inland. Freezing rain or ice can be expected in the downstate NY area, so driving could be hazardous on Saturday night.

The unpredictable part is where and when a changeover to freezing rain/ice or rain may take place. Current forecast fo r the NYC metro puts that time in Saturday evenining to late night. Temps expected to be well above freezing on Sunday. The temperatures will cool rapidly as the low moves out late Sunday.

Assuming not too miuch rain in the region, any touring center could groom out the trails in a day. Backcountry could become challenging if the glaze becomes a breakaable crust.

Excerpts from National Weather Service forecast discussion

NYC metro region:

[Saturday] For the winter weather advisory expect 2 to 4 inches, with locally up to 5 inches across a few of the farthest northern locations. Also these same locations are likely to experience a glaze of ice further south, to close to a quarter of an inch ofsice across northwestern portions of Orange County.

NWS NYC office (OKX)

Catskills, Berkshires, Southern Vermont

[Weekend advisories] After collaboration with surrounding offices, have hoisted Winter Storm Watches mainly across higher elevations of the ADKs, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills and Greens of southern VT where snow amounts greater than 7 inches from this storm are possible, along with ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch.

NWS Albany office (ALY)

Adirondack High Peaks and northern VT

[Saturday night thru Sunday evening] Winter Storm Watch has been posted across the entire CWA for the period 7pm Saturday through 11pm Sunday for potential snow and mixed wintry precipitation. Current indications suggest snow/sleet accumulations of 5-10″, along with light icing potential, leading to potentially difficult winter travel conditions areawide.

NWS Burlington office (BTV)

The Poconos and central NY including the Tug Hill will have a more complex set of conditions for the weekend. While parts of central NY stand to get 8-10″ of snow, Binghamton and northwestern NJ might get only a couple of inches and then rain. The White Mountains will likely get a decent amount of snow and wintry mix, possibly avoiding the rain that most of the region will see on Sunday.

Monday will be much cooler, with gusty winds.